We might be a year or two away from having 4-5 guys in the top 50 again, but while we may never regain the golden age of Sampras-Agassi-Courier-Chang dominance I got to enjoy as a kid, things will be a lot better in the future than they are now. I'm convinced of it. The problem with American tennis is we are taught to hit big serves and forehands, and come in. That has always been the blueprint to success. As strings got better, balls heavier, courts slower... it's all benefited legs and consistency over shotmaking. Not only is it harder to hit through the court, underdeveloped weaknesses are easier to expose. So all those youngsters that spent all their formative years not worrying about a backhand because they were running around it and bombing every shot? They are paying for that now. And it's much easier to pass them when they are at the net. The classic clay courter game is now the universal game, and that's what having success. Guys like Raonic, Tsonga, Isner and Berdych are the exception because they are freaks of nature. But unless you are a freak of nature, you better be able to run, defend, keep the ball in the court and have endurance. That's how you survive in the modern game. It's why a guy like Smyczek is ranked so much higher than Steve Johnson, say, despite having much less "game". We're getting there but years of one dimensional teaching has to be undone. Anyway, this could take up an entire blog post so I'll leave it at that for now.
The players:
John Isner: Without question he's the best player our country has. He's the best server in the history of the game, in my opinion. I find it funny that people compare his serve to Karlovic because it's not even close. Ivo's serve is lots of slice, while John's serve has way more legs, bite and action. His second serve on a high bouncing court is death to return. And of course, his return game is horrific. He's been stabilizing around the top 15 for a while now and it will be hard for him to break through and do much better in my opinion because he's not built to go deep in slams. His body is just too big to withstand the wear and tear of a best of 5 sets match. In a best of 3 tournament he can beat anyone. He has no points to defend the first few months of the season so he could easily get into the top 10 with a decent run during this stretch, but at year's end I still think he stays around 14/15 because he gets a lot of little nicks along the course of a season. It's just hard for him to stay healthy and while he's putting a nice career together and he's a threat to win a Masters I think that's perhaps his ceiling.
Sam Querrey: He's the big enigma right now. We've seen his potential, which is top 20, but like Isner he can't get it done in slams. In fact, he's even worse than Isner in the slams. I use to liken Querrey's demeanor to Sampras on the court, and found that composed behavior impressive... but now I'm starting to realize it might actually be apathy. Sampras had a deep fire inside of him that made him desperate to win, he just never showed it. Querrey's demeanor looks the same on the exterior, but on the interior he lacks a competitive fire. Querrey has health and confidence issues to be sure, and they will creep into 2014. But he can get hot with his serve and forehand and still do some damage. His backhand, return game, head and defensive skills are all weaknesses, but they are good enough to get by. The bottom line is while I doubt he'll ever break through and be a guy that can be a factor at slams, he is way better than 46 in the world. This kid should be in the top 35 at minimum if he is playing anywhere near his potential. Hopefully he can bounce back.
Tim Smyczek: He's the #3 American right now, but I think this might be a tough year for him. "Smee" will be playing more ATP tour level tournaments and less Challengers this year, and because he's so slight of frame I think he'll see himself getting pushed around more and being given less errors at the next level. I don't think his game translates as well with top 100 ball. He has a world class backhand and the speed to get to anything. He also competes really well and I love his fight. That will win him matches he has no business winning at the next level. But he'll be defending getting deep in Challengers and will need to win matches at these 250 events. I could see him standing pat or regressing slightly.
Michael Russell: I'm told this is his final year on tour and he will retire at the US Open. He's an example for every single American tennis player to follow. The guy is a total talent maximizer. Keep your head clear, work hard, and you can go really far. He defends quite a few points after the US Open so I think he'll end the year outside the top 100. Russell is 0-9 at the US Open for his career in main draw matches, so I think his one and main goal this season is to close out his career by winning a match at the Open. That's one of the things I'll be really pulling for in 2014. More than anything, I want Mike Russell to win a match there. He's the nicest guy I have met on the pro tour and no one works harder. He deserves it. In year's past he has always had brutal draws so hopefully he can get something decent in the first round this year.
Donald Young: Who knows? I've given up on any kind of expectations with him. He'll do what he does. He has great potential, he also doesn't have the mental makeup to be a winner consistently. I know better than to expect anything from him. I don't think he can regain that top 35 form, though. At least this top 100 finish will get him some looks at the 250's again, though. Maybe he can make some noise in Australia and get his year off to a good start.
Ryan Harrison: He is at 100 right now and that is way too low for him. He says all the right things but he's either not working hard enough or not doing the right things. He needs to be in the top 50 at the end of the year, where he belongs. He is still the future of American tennis.
Jack Sock: Like Harrison he is way too low at 102. He'll get more looks at the bigger tournament this eyar too, though. His fitness is priority #1 right now. But he's young and loaded with talent. I'd like to see him in the top 50 as well in 2014 but he may still be a year off.
Others:
Bradley Klahn - Top 100 finish was a surprise, I think he may jump back down but we'll see if he can sustain this.
Denis Kudla - At 114 he's regressed a bit. I think high end he's at 85 or so at year's end, but I worry he may end outside of the top 100 again.
Rhyne Williams - Nice potential, huge head case. Until he can control his emotions, he won't get into the top 100. He's knocking on the door, though.
Steve Johnson - He was top 100 and now he's 156. His sophomore season was a tough one. He has to develop a better return game and backhand if he wants to progress.
Tennys Sandgren - At 183 I actually think he's way better than his ranking. He has the big game to impose himself on faster surfaces. I give him a shot at winning the Aussie Open wild card playoff, and if not he can still get in through quallies. He works very hard, so I almost guarantee he will end 2014 with a much better than 183 ranking.
Jarmere Jenkins - He's already at 341 after half a year as a pro. Look out for him.
Best of the rest:
Brian Baker if he can return from injury.
Mardy Fish if he decides to give it another try with his condition (I'm told that will not happen)
Rajeev Ram
Alex Kuznetsov
Wayne Odesnik (yuck)
Bobby Reynolds
Robby Ginepri
Austin Krajicek
Bjorn Fratangelo
Chase Buchanan
Mitchell Krueger
Christian Harrison
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